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Prediction Facebook Will Not Be A Social Network In 2022

HYPOTHESIS: In the next five years, Facebook will turn away from being a social network and consider itself solely to be the operating system of the internet.
 
Algorithms will drive the death of social networks, because what an algorithm can track is not of interest to human beings. Instead of being useful, algorithms track what we do - contributing to wasted time and personal dysfunction.

The value of social traffic is already declining. Advertising is addicted to traffic, but the value of paying traffic is high. The value of traffic that does not convert is close to zero for all but the largest of brands. Advertising is struggling to prove its worth, but as the move towards pixel conversion grows stronger, the emptiness of "social," "video" and "images" in short bursts will cause Facebook to pivot to run in the background instead of being a news source.
 
In simple explanation - trending news that points to twitter hashtags, shocking headlines, or stolen reddit posts has a net negative value on a brand. Declining click-through rates will eventually lead Facebook to abandon generic advertising through a news feed.
 
The future of social is limited social groups with strong privacy controls. Facebook, who has already squashed the other social networks (Twitter and Snapchat are dead, even if they don't know it), will recognize this and seek to be the internet login, running apps in the background that function like a personal enterprise software suite. 


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